Has the time come to panic on elite running backs?

It’s been a common strategy at the top of most fantasy football drafts to select high profile, proven NFL running backs. Going back over my nearly 20 years of playing this game, that has been one of the few consistent strategies among owners and has stood the test of time. However with the dreaded running back by committee situations popping up league wide, it’s a strategy this will not be going away anytime soon, but will getting one of these top level back pay off in the long term?

Locking into a runner who is the only RB option on his NFL team ensures owners an advantage over league members drafting later in round one. This is why the likes of AP, MJD, Ray Rice and Chris Johnson dominated the early first round picks. But so far this year, we are not seeing the production many of us would have hoped for from these first round studs. Is it time to panic with these first round RB’s? Lets take a closer look at these top 4 backs and what we can expect for the rest of the season.

Chris Johnson was the first or at worst second pick in nearly every fantasy football draft and for good reason. He started off right where he left off last year in week one with a 142 yards and a 2 touchdown game… owners couldn’t have been happier. But a strange thing happened in week 2 against the always tough Steelers defense, a pedestrian effort from CJ finishing with only 34 yards on 16 carries and zero touchdowns. Should CJ owners be worried about this…hell no…this is Chris Johnson after all and he is the offense in Tennessee. It should be noted that he had a 85-yard TD run come back after a penalty last week too, erase that penalty and Johnson has another CJ like day against the mighty Steelers defense. No need to panic owners, he will be among the top 2 FF RBs by year end, right where you were counting on him to be when you drafted him.

Adrian Peterson hasn’t been too bad this year either, what scares me the most about AP is that Viking offense is in complete shambles right now and head coach Brad Childress seems to mismanage his superstar RB far too often. Clearly AP has been the only reliable weapon in the offense this year, yet Childress in week 1 refused to feed the beast in the second half against the Saints. With the passing game not scaring anybody this year, it’s a bit concerning to think defenses may be focused 100% on shutting down AP as the year goes on. Add to that, the Viking have a killer schedule against tough defenses after this week facing the Lions, and there is certainly reason to be scared as an AP owner. Nobody can question the man on the field, he often times looks like a man among boys, but there are a lot of things piling up against him and I can’t help but worry about AP wearing down as the season goes on. I wouldn’t panic with him just yet, but understand there could be plenty of frustration as the season progresses.

Maurice Jones-Drew was the leftovers for many owners drafting in the 3 or 4 spot this year. Usually getting a talent like MJD is a blessing for owners who know they can count on production each week of the bowling ball runner for the Jags. However this season something just doesn’t seem to be right with MJD. Through 2 games, he has averaged just 3.7 yards a carry and hasn’t found his way in the end zone yet. Couple that with just 4 catches so far and getting outplayed by the youngster Rashad Jennings and it might be time to panic with Jones-Drew. I haven’t even mentioned the lingering ankle injury which may or may not be the reason for the slow start. If MJD can’t get it going this week against an Eagles team who has put up zero resistance to opposing RB this year and the passing game doesn’t open up some opportunities for him to run, it may be too late. Deal him low at that point or continue to watch him struggle, but by that time owners will be in full panic mode and for good reason.

Ray Rice was thought of to be an MJD clone and as they both struggle this season, he has been. Many owners counted on him to be a monster this year, especially in a PPR league, but so far after 2 weeks he only has six more points than MJD. While owners may want to convince themselves he has been down because of tough matchups, which he has certainly faced, that isn’t going to change anytime soon either. After facing the Browns this week, which he should have a field day against, the road in front of him has a few speed bumps. How about 2 more times facing a Steelers defense that completely shut down Chris Johnson a week ago. The receptions haven’t been there this year early and Flacco is relying more on this new playmaker WRs then the short dump offs to Rice like he did so often last season. There doesn’t seem to be too much concern about the ankle injury that held him out for parts of the game last week, but there certainly cannot be any benefits coming out of that. I wouldn’t be in full panic mode just yet and a great week from Rice should be counted on in week 3, but only the most optimistic of owners can feel really good with the situation as it stands right now.

While the outlook for these top of the line draft picks doesn’t look all that great, let’s not forget all of these guys are elite talents for a reason. NFL teams know who their playmakers are and will try to get them the ball in positions to make plays, so hopefully as the year progresses the slow starts will balance themselves out. But we must remember there are no guarantees in fantasy football and previous success does not dictate future success…so ride these 4 backs as long as you can and make the necessary moves as the year winds on to ensure your fantasy squad is as strong as possible. We can no longer expect our first round stud running backs to carry our teams like we have been able to in the past. The most successful owners are those that can make the necessary adjustments, even when we are not getting the production we had hoped for from our stud fantasy players.

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